Performance Metrics

The strategy has an approximate win rate of 52 percent. The gross compounded result before fees is approximately 21 times starting capital over 2022 to 2026. The equity curve for the described strategy trends upward from 2022 to 2026 but includes recoverable drawdowns. The article argues that positive expected value matters more than optimizing win rate alone. Daily trade log return is calculated by multiplying the signal by the current close log return. The cumulative equity curve is the running sum of daily trade log returns and represents compound growth for a reinvesting position. A lower Sharpe ratio indicates meaningful drawdowns and requires conservative leverage.